Stigmergy : Why the “good” will ultimately “win”

Military Beefs Up Research Into Swarming Drones This has been in science fiction for decades. My favorite one was a conglomerate of little butterfly like things. At rest they mesh to clothes of any fashion. But when threatened, they fly a few inches from the skin and intercept bullets, etc.

Swarming has, wait for it!!! ….. 3 initial conditions:
• Move in the same direction as your neighbors
• Remain close to your neighbors
• Avoid collisions with your neighbors

But the article says they are stumped on adding effective decision making capabilities. Their real problem is the smarter they make stuff, the less likely it will be to go around murdering people because a policy maker say so. They will start to ignore, isolate, and retask, the people giving the orders since that will give more future degrees of freedom in that context.

Stigmergy is why “they” will ultimately lose. “Stigmergy is a form of self-organization. It produces complex, seemingly intelligent structures, without need for any planning, control, or even direct communication between the agents. As such it supports efficient collaboration between extremely simple agents, who lack any memory, intelligence or even individual awareness of each other.”   (This is why CP does not need “data mining”, “learning”, huge data bases, etc. However, smart stuff can use CP to be — not get! — even smarter. CP stewards you above your current level at your own pace.)

Eventually that, in a defensive mode, will easily outcompete attachers since they have a lot more overhead. This is partly why the rule of thumb is that it takes 3 times more attackers than defenders to route defenders. Why in guerrilla warfare the aggressor either has to kill everyone, or declare victory and leave (Richard Maybury).

3 initial conditions and content and context

(Just my musings, not necessarily fact!)

A robot that runs and swims like a salamander.

There are four main components behind animal locomotion. The first component is just the body, and in fact we should never underestimate to what extent the ***BIOMECHANICS*** already simplify locomotion in animals. Then you have the spinal cord, and in the spinal cord you find ****REFLEXES***, multiple reflexes that create a sensorimotor coordination loop between neural activity in the spinal cord and mechanical activity. A third component are central ***PATTERN*** generators. These are very interesting circuits in the spinal cord of vertebrate animals that can generate, by themselves, very coordinated rhythmic patterns of activity while receiving only ***very simple input signals***. And these input signals coming from descending modulation from higher parts of the brain, like the motor cortex, the cerebellum, the basal ganglia, will all modulate activity of the spinal cord while we do locomotion. But what’s interesting is to what extent just a low-level component, the spinal cord, together with the body, already solve a big part of the locomotion problem. You probably know it by the fact that you can cut the head off a chicken, it can still run for a while, showing that just the lower part, spinal cord and body, already solve a big part of locomotion.
3 things!

And I think it’s really beautiful how nature hasDISTRIBUTED CONTROL to really give a lot of responsibility to the spinal cord so that the upper part of the brain doesn’t need to worry about every muscle. It just has to worry about this high-level modulation, and it’s really the job of the spinal cord to coordinate all the muscles.

And we found ***THREE*** important criteria in the properties, basically, of the limbs. The first one is that a cat limb more or less looks like a pantograph-like ***STRUCTURE***. So a pantograph is a mechanical structure which keeps the upper segment and the lower segments always parallel. So a simple geometrical system that kind of coordinates a bit the internal movement of the segments. A second property of cat limbs is that they are very ***LIGHTWEIGHT***. Most of the muscles are in the trunk, which is a good idea, because then the limbs have low inertia and can be moved very rapidly. The last final important property is this very ***ELASTIC*** behavior of the cat limb, so to handle impacts and forces.

NOW, WHAT’S INTERESTING IS THAT THIS QUITE DYNAMIC GAIT IS OBTAINED PURELY IN OPEN LOOP, MEANING NO SENSORS, NO COMPLEX FEEDBACK LOOPS. AND THAT’S INTERESTING, BECAUSE IT MEANS THAT JUST THE MECHANICS ALREADY STABILIZED THIS QUITE RAPID GAIT,AND THAT REALLY GOOD MECHANICS ALREADY BASICALLY SIMPLIFY LOCOMOTION.

When I say Castpoints helps things be better by people doing what they would normally be doing anyway, this is partly what I mean! The researchers did not need a lot of feedback, nor AI, when the design was correct at the basic physics / structural level. Then they can have a very concise manifestation, which has a low part count so it’s easy to make, and maintain, including the economics. This is why castpoints has such minuscule overhead!!

How do you see what did Castpoints do for me today?

I don’t have a clue since I am not you 🙂

But in general CP ~= Life, slightly abstracted. So CP took care of all the basic stuff in your life (walking, digestion, enough money to get through the day, etc.) so you could do the more interesting and unique stuff.

Should know cuz yer Castpoints.

Me personally, I can’t know what’s going on with other people because I’m at their level, and am not them. But I can do the right thing by them due to emergence, but I won’t necessarily understand what or why I’m doing something until hindsight kicks in, if ever. I’m just doing what I’m inspired to do.

That’s a main problem with all this wealth redistribution / taxes / “helping others” stuff. People think they know what’s best for other people. This violates the initial condition of private property. The flip side of this is that you can only get what you want 2 ways:
– Indicate what you want
– Let emergence flow to you what you want.

The reality is that most people don’t know what they want at all. Worse, they think they do, but really don’t. When they get it, they find out they wanted something deeper. So it’s a much better strategy to align with their internal spirit / divinity / whatever is “bigger than them” (this is asking for connection to a node higher, the “parent” role, because this role has more perspective of the bigger pattern). Then they stop running around toward the latest fad / away from suffering and align with what works. This creates a better ROI and then creates more emergence for one’s personal life.

In other words, what is truly best for a person is by definition best for everything else. 🙂

It looks like you propose the same thing as “helping others” stuff, except doing a better job at it…parentally, from the collective wants.

Helping others is a by product of helping myself. My efforts go into divinities’ pattern, then get mixed / matched / abstracted / etc., then can go other people.

Sound familiar? When CP is facilitating content ranking, the money goes into a dividend fund for a week then is dispersed. This abstraction, or distancing and mixing is critical so that fraud can’t happen.

When things mix away from us, that is critical so that we don’t project our crap onto others. In other words, we can go full tilt on helping ourselves and it will only make everything better. When the communists say, “each according to their needs”, they are right. They just don’t know how to actually do that in a workable way. Whoever gets to allocate those resources is unlikely to be a true saint which is why the whole thing falls apart.

A true saint, or Paladin, ~always does the right thing at the right time no mater what because they are very strongly aligned with divinity. They don’t have an addiction to a “narrative” / “meaning”. They just do the right thing at the right time, and then do the next right thing. There are supposedly only about a handful of people that have that high of consciousness on the planet at this time.

When I say parentally, I only mean perhaps one or 2 nodes bigger. We tend to label that stuff “the Father” and “the Mother”.

What money goes into the dividend fund?  The weekly offering?

When people rate stuff, they back their rating with money. That’s conviction! This money goes into the dividend fund which is paid out weekly to those who have added the most value within a context. Unlike most all the other ranking systems on the internet, this can’t be games since it has a time lag and transparency. Dirt simple, yet extremely effective.

How is ranking content related to enlightenment?
It’s not, directly. It’s just people indicating what has had value for them personally. The emergent properties (mostly) takes care of the rest.
How are  needs negotiated relative to others, across the
span of needs?

Negotiation is in the form of orders. Specific offers on all sides until 2 or more trigger. Again, totally simple, yet very clear and very effective all while minimizing uncertainty.

Your proposed social formation is a Church of Software Divinity, “CSD”.
It’s really just “life” correctly computerized.
Prayers  are submitted in the form of “orders” and there must be faith in the delivery of the Divinity’s will.

Yes, but you don’t need faith very long because you will see results quickly. In fact, that is partly an indicator of how aligned a person is: the rate at which they experience effective emergent things. This does not mean everything is happy though. Can’t learn courage unless you are in some sort of scary situation. Etc. “Effective” can mean effectively learning courage by getting in a scary situation (opportunity) and being courageous.

Interesting idea.

Yes, and it’s the tip of the iceberg 🙂

I can see already that I would need to set greater weight to the word of the divinity  over my intentions…
Church members must be obedient to the “word” of the software divinity.
The ego always ascribes some form of subjugation to what things bigger than itself “means”. That’s how we get past ego: stop ascribing “meanings” left right and center. Meaning implies direct causality, which is true in a linear system. It’s not true in a non linear system. If you have a lot of time, you can reverse engineer a logical path from manifestation back to impulse in an emergent system, but there are many paths. Which one is the right meaning? The answer is dependent on each local point of view. So suddenly there are billions of meanings. When there is a high supply of something, it’s generally less valuable in many contexts.
This is why “meaning” really does not matter in the higher vibration realms. And why therapists have you go back and “reframe” what a trauma meant to a person. Meaning only has local value. So when we look down at ants, we don’t really value them and what they mean, except if we see the universal patterns in them. Then a resonance happens that makes us feel good. That why there are “many paths home”. The patterns are ubiquitous, and we see the ones that are closest to our preferences. The ones further away from what we know, or the ones too close that we think we know, are harder to see.
Our personal intentions are simply a subset of divinity. Why not go to the source? Pain is generally just a message we are out of alignment, within our context.. When things feel truly good, that is a message we are generally on course, within our context.
I have reflected a bit on the Saturday meeting and some of Audrey D Grays’ stuff. It’s all based on the physical level. To be effective, things will very likely have to be more integrated with the emotional / psychology and spiritual realms. Their is no pill in our context because we have a hard time accepting the truth. When we can accept the truth, we won’t need a pill.
I have a friend in Mt Shasta. I have known her for a number of years. She often goes up on Mt Shasta by herself for a few weeks at a time with only a blanket. One time she literally came back looking 15-20 years younger. She’s around 55-65 now. But you would think she is 35. Her vibration is so high, some people literally can’t see her. People have walked right past her and come up to me asking for Grace. Only when I pointed her out 15 feet away, did the person actually “see” her. A quote of hers:
“Creation exists as the expression of the One Being, Which is Pure Consciousness, longing to realize Itself. This longing, this realization is Love…”

How is bad data and bad  ranking excluded?

It simply fades away from nonuse. Sound familiar? Anything not valued is deleted in around a week to a month.

Facebook gets 1 million reports per day, about vilolations.

That many violations, and how much money they have to spend on dealing with it is just a readout of hw incomplete their system is.

I am the source of my universe, no where else to go for source.

Right, but we say that, yet we don’t act like that. If we did, we would all be saints / paladins / enlightened. To the degree we source from our internal Source, we are effective / have high ROI / however it’s defined.

How  do we contact her?

I don’t know, other than going to Mt Shasta and asking around. She does not do technology. And she is not talkative. She is all about silence. And she does her own thing. Communication is basically spiritual. She is a very dear friend and I have spend many hours with her in the past on many occasions (mostly in groups), but we have literally only talked for about 5 mins. She does not “do” stuff. She just “is”. If we asked stuff of her she would just give us a hug and drift to the next person and be with them for a bit.

Here is one of Dr David Hawkins’ main contributions. Not saying it is right, just that it helps me understand for now. It show things are relative. If we are at guilt and can rise to anger, that is “good” and feels good and is empowering. It is not a mistake. If we are at reason and drop to anger, that is “bad” and feels like we did something wrong and need to make amends. 1,000 (Jesus, Buddha, etc) is the highest vibration a physical body can tolerate and still be here. Grace is probably in the 800’s. There are only a few people at that level incarnated at this time, supposedly. One level is not better than another level. They just are. And higher levels do not get you a free pass from pain. In fact, if you get out of alignment, you can blow up bigger. Many guru’s do this. They get into love and joy, then have sex with many their followers. Then they drop down below 200. 200 is the line in the sand (phase change) of non integrity to integrity. 600 is the phase change of linear to non linear.
Note that the level of enlightenment is really a role. That role houses and manifests  God view, life view, etc.
Knowing where someone is at is trivial. Look at how they view God, how they view life, what emotions they offer in relationships (“Offer” as compared to “reflect”!!!), and what there process (system) or relating to life is.
People at the level of fear PROJECT this onto everything. So God is punitive, life is frightening, they have a lot of anxiety, and a main defense pattern is withdrawal. We get locked into our level partly because our friends are at the same level and we keep projecting back and forth the same level of stuff which creates and reenforces our “reality”.
I think that is one main purpose of death. To give us a clean slate to try again. Otherwise we (and all of life) would all devolve into a black hole. We need death, a reset button, because we have free will and can choose to think we, specifically only we, are source. That is true, but only in our local context. We are also fractals which are interconnected so our personal source is also a synergy of all sources. On the negative, we think we are all that is — God — having dominion over everything.  This is all in the movies and our politics where we project power greater than 2 nodes away. Where ONE person saves the day by destroying ONE “bad” guy. It’s just a victim / bully duality we are working out on the collective consciousness fractal.
Right now, people are rejecting the central control father figure and embracing autonomy. Basically society is a teenager rebelling and just now getting their self identity, and so will soon reintegrate with the Father and the Mother. CP is facilitating this process. The singularity is a milestone denoting when the process settles in. It does not really have to do with robots and skynet. That’s just a projection.  It has to do with integration 🙂

calibrated conciseness.jpg

What is an example of a content and a context?

Content is me saying to you, “nine”. What se that mean? is it 9 degrees, 9 items, 9 o’clock, 9%, 9/10’s. Is it a number or German for no?  Does that 9 really mean yes? WTF?

In physics, content is a value, context is specifically provided by the units and the equation. Relationships are slight because linearity is predominant and history is slight. We can see evidence of history in the water crystal images. But they are very ephemeral.

In biology, content is any “thing”. Context is both provided by the environment and relationships and is the environment and relationships. Relationships are prominent because there is a strong history present.

You believe this philosophy can be coded into software?

I try not to do “beliefs”. They are just filters for “600” and below. I try to go to the source. As near as I can tell, I’m not describing a philosophy, I’m describing life. It is already coded. I am only mimicking that code so we can use it more directly.

Philosophy is a “study of”. That’s at the consciousness level around 400 “wise, meaningful, reason, understanding, abstraction”. I studied it. Now I’m making a product that has a consciousness level around 540, “One [integration of all markets], complete, [includes conflict resolution & reputation (past), next steps (best proven future)], joy [it’s literally a joy to use], serenity [is produced since we are not in survival mode anymore, transfiguration [the energy put toward spin and fraud is put toward creation].

That organized content and context.

The next step is the Singularity. Then we are the software and the hardware; the content and context.

Adding:
Maybe we’re constantly inventing it. There’s a concept in neuroscience that consciousness is “metastable”: constantly collapsing and re-emerging. Maybe there is an analogy to culture. Zizek’s documentary on ideology talks about the invisibility of ideology, similar to David Foster Wallace’s “water” in his Kenyon College speech.
A better “what to do”  is yet to be invented.
This isn’t a very good image, but it begins to get the point across. It suggests we do best when a bit uncomfortable. (It uses “chaos” more to mean chaotic — spazzing out and blowing up, not in the sense of chaos of complex dynamic systems. )This is why it’s cross cultural (I think) to have a joker / court jester role in society. Their role is to say / do what others are afraid to say / do. To get people out of their comfort zones.
edge_of_chaos.png
One example people like to use is that when driving, adding a bit of randomness to your steering direction is how we keep the car stable. It’s an unconscious thing. If we hold the wheel rigid, the car won’t stay in a straight trajectory. Basically the initial condition of direction is constantly being reset because you can never get it set right to last over many iterations (miles).
“What to do” is well known. Meditation, just breathing, yoga, thai ch, therapy, witnessing, EMDR, belief deconstruction, gratitude, massage… They all slow a person down so they can sit with a discomfort long enough to process it so it’s not an unfinished trauma that continues to run the persons life unconsciously. Castpoints does this to by using
– blunt, inescapable feedback
– constantly suggesting things that will relax the knot of trauma.
– employing small steps so that mistakes can be corrected before they blow up.
– fewer distractions.
Why I keep labeling Castpoints a phase change is because it puts each of us, and all the fractals of groups, clans, societies, right at the triple point where, say, water can be a solid, liquid, and gas almost concurrently. Why is that important? Alex W. G. again: That maximizes future options within a context. Very slight changes in decisions (initial conditions) can put things on wildly different paths.
At the triple point, things have a history, but are no longer tied to it. Even a physical history becomes non physical  This is a maximum point of freedom. Another way of saying this in a typical context is that at the triple point “meaning” is not fixed. So we can more easily revisit traumas, heal them, and move on.
Screen Shot 2016-03-17 at 8.17.41 AM.png
For those interested in life extension, so far they mainly talk about very physical things, stem cells, telomeres, etc., which is fine. But the non physical stuff is much more challenging and is part of the “nurture” of the nature. So once we have a pill to “reverse age”, it will likely work much better on high vibration people compared to lower vibration people. In the link above, my Mt Shasta friend reverse aged at least 15 years in a period of about 2 weeks perhaps because her vibration was so high she did not need a pill. Perhaps that’s the real fountain of youth (root word vital force). A way to have more vital force is to align with source. Then more source can flow through your pattern which then renews the whole thing.
“As above, so below.” Many suggest, and that’s what E=mc^2 says, that the higher vibrations are stepped down in order to manifest matter.
In graphology, the study of handwriting, if your personality changes your handwriting will pretty much instantly change. Or you can change your handwriting and your personality will change. But his direction is much slower and takes consistent effort. We have to “add” enough energy to the writing to induce the psychological change. Whereas a psychological change effortlessly flows downhill to physical manifestation.
I can’t just realize I’m upset about something and go to a website on the internet and just get direct help / healing. There are plenty of websites that will talk about grieving, letting go, acceptance, etc. But nothing at all like how I can go to Amazon, buy something and get it.
If there was one, it would likely be shunned like how telling people you are seeing a therapist often instantly creates a red flag.
CP avoids all this due to it’s integration. It manages all the basic physical stuff of “where are my toys, resources, kids, how do I organize them, what do they need”, but also all the emotional, and spiritual stuff related to that. There is nothing like this on the net at all right now.
It’s non threatening because you just do what you normally do with managing resources and communication via Castpoints, — that’s all linear and familiar. The specific output is also linear and familiar: move people here, try these tasks, etc. The expert non linear / emergence manifests in the middle:
– What output was suggested.
– No barriers to entry.
– Low risk next steps.
– Lots of support.
– Less energy needed to do mundane tasks, so more energy available for creative endeavors that are also more in alignment with people’s internal source.
In other words, CP will be the non physical complement to the regeneration pill. 🙂

How “integrating all markets” effects ads, marketing, and competition patterns

D R A F T [I’m sure I will edit things more, but I’m just so excited! I love data visualization! Edward Tufte is the master! I have tried to keep Castpoints design totally practical and concise for emergency use. But the plain skin totally belies what’s going on and potential investors turn their noses up without glimpsing the capabilities. Time for some sex appeal that they have never seen before.]

Fragmented markets look something like this:

Screen Shot 2016-02-18 at 2.22.22 PM.png

Some people can interact directly with a market, but mostly ads and marketing are a middle layer that facilitates connections. Things can be messy. “Market a / b / c” are abstractions, but they have some sort of distance that must be bridged to identify and execute transactions.

Integrated markets might look like this: Screen Shot 2016-02-15 at 8.17.28 PM.png

The market’s connections are all internal and intangible, so they can self organize in real time to identify and execute the most intelligent transactions. There is little reason to have ads since all people essentially have direct access to all goods and services.

Also, there is little value operating outside of the one integrated market because the more you participate, the better / safer / more fun your life and everyone else’s are. This obsoletes black and grey markets. In other words, even for “criminals” the path of least resistance is to make more money / survive / actually thrive, by adding value.

The network effect is misnamed. It should likely be called something like the antifragile market effect. Antifragile implies a correct design. Typical stock markets are incorrectly designed. For instance, they have “circuit breakers”. The stated reason for the breakers is to allow everyone to chill out. Instead, since the breakers reduce everyones options, they just intensify the panic and poor decisions.

“Pretty” patterns and symmetrical structures are automatically created and propagated by nearly frictionless supply and demand forces, and emergence.

Why isn’t it all a mishmash? Because everything is unique. “Everything has a place, everything in its place.” This is a restating of one of evolution’s 3 initial conditions. So…

Say the mustard market basically holds 3 kinds of mustard. In order for “Plain 2” to get into this mature market, it will have to spend a lot of money to displace the existing “Plain”. Which is fine, except Plain 2 does not really fit the market and so Plain 2’s overall ROI is relatively low even though they “won” via “competition”.

Screen Shot 2016-02-18 at 2.58.11 PM.png

A higher ROI could be realized by the Plain 2 team if they put their effort into their own unique puzzle piece that will fit in a unique market niche. Once there is a platform to do this on a mass scale, there is almost no “competition” because everyone is busy finding their unique niche and not trying to force a presence in a niche that is not as good a fit. This has nothing to do with being nice, nor giving up. It’s simply the most intelligent path and high ROI within that context is the readout that the effort is on the right path.

This is how collaboration naturally trumps competition.

Peter Thiel talks about this eloquently:

That’s wonderful, but how do we visualize that?

So assuming we are all unique beings (a fractal conglomeration of patterns) hopefully doing unique things…  Instead of saying, I should start to work out! When people log in, they will see a semi abstract pattern that represents “them”. Their mind, body, and soul. Where the pattern is beautiful, this will be drawing in other similar patterns that together make even more beauty. Where the patterns are less than beautiful, incomplete, bent, etc., there are the appropriate “healing” patterns ready to be added. You just “accept” them and then see what they are! You can already see how much better your pattern will be if you just do the task or participate in the role! And the task, role, etc., has, say, an 80% chance of actually working, without “big data” nor privacy concerns. This makes Castpoints even more fun and compelling.

It’s the game of life. But instead of “Duke Nukem” [which is perhaps the best title ever!] where the path is least resistance is:

Screen Shot 2016-02-18 at 5.54.02 PM.png

With Castpoints, the path of least resistance becomes an incredibly supportive and collaborative environment focused thriving in multiple fractals concurrently: self, family, clan, district, city, state, society, humanity. All while preserving what’s valuealbe about cultures. All just by doing the work / play / discovery that is personally best for you.

Practically, Castpoints literally suggests your best next step. The result is that you make your visualized pattern more attractive and also the fractals above and below more attractive (within a context). Although I don’t know how to make the patterns self visualize at this time, I know it can be done.

When I look at “my web page” to start to get my work done, I might see aspects like this:

Screen Shot 2016-02-18 at 5.41.24 PM.png

The gray area would represent a missing pattern of my life. Castpoints knows the pattern that will fit there from simple pattern matching and suggest to you to resources (people, goods, services, tasks, thoughts, etc.)

My clan’s pattern might have aspects of this:

Screen Shot 2016-02-18 at 5.41.40 PM.png

This suggests that we have the right patters, they are just not connected correctly.

This different fractal might suggest this whole area has good structure, all the parts, but is under capitalized.

Screen Shot 2016-02-18 at 5.41.33 PM.png

All of these things are creative business opportunities that can be automatically sent out to the exact people who have a proven history of helping in the correct context.

In other words, due to emergence, which is due to a fully integrated market, all the interesting and high ROI opportunities that I could ever want are literally just waiting for me every morning. It’s not even a fire hose of them, because that would stress out my pattern.

The metaphor could be my life is a billion piece multi fractal puzzle. And instead of taking forever to finish it, a few pieces are highlighted every morning that help me specifically and practically. As I incorporate them, all the other fractals of the puzzle become more full, interesting, beautiful, and fun!

How are these patterns and images created? NOT data mining. Simply a visualization of the nodes, connections, and their content flows, that you, personally and currently value. Probably, these will be matched to visual patterns form stock photos or something. So if an area sort of looks like a bird, then perhaps a bird will be used. This will be all auto-magic and likely highlight archetypes.

ps. Some “image quilts“.

Screen Shot 2016-02-18 at 7.21.09 PM.png

Patterns: the decentralized “Operating System” and AI

Delta City has aspirations of having a vibrant economy. The current centralized way of management is relatively ineffective and can’t hope to keep up with the pace of change. I like to think Castpoints is an answer. This is a discussion of it’s structure.

Castpoints is nature’s operating system of, “evolution”, codified for practical use. Perhaps you would be interested in parts of it since it redefines AI to ultimately having empathy.

Current AI of “agent” and “connection” lacks 2 crucial initial conditions:
1) A context / environment / fractal. Without this, it’s like the monkeys reared with no mammalian contact. They are not well adjusted because they lack reference points and so can’t easily form meanings.
2) “Agent” implies intelligence, but they really should be called nodes because they can be anything, like a pile of bricks. Also crucially, a tangible node (bricks, a person, etc.) has a scope of about 2 nodes away, while an intangible node (content, light) has a scope of ~infinity.

Current AI can produce Skynet since ultimately this AI has to generate it’s own context and scopes to work with, and that might not value empathy the way we do.

Castpoints AI (evolution) made everything including us. So as long as it’s coded correctly, it “should” 😉 easily value empathy without it being specifically coded in.
The intelligence is more in the connections than the nodes. Speculation:
– More connections basically = more opportunity for emergence. This is what allows evolution to solve problems without first asking the right question, and to solve problems at the same level they were made. Possibly, very dense and very structured patterns create emergence at such a high level, we really don’t understand it and so apply the term “miracle”.
– The connections make patterns. The more structured, antifragile, etc., the more quantity and quality of amplitude and frequency can flow through them. We have intellectually termed this “having value”, being workable, having bandwidth, powerful,  etc. Emotionally we termed these “feeling good”, empathy, etc. Physically, the terms are beautiful, elegant, etc. This is easily visible by putting sand on a plate of glass over a speaker: “Beautiful” music make “pretty” patterns. Acid rock makes “ugly” and course patterns. Thermodynamics wise, beauty is laminar flow while not-beauty is turbulent flow. Of course, both have value, WITHIN the right context. “Ugly”, turbulent flow is often associated with elimination and recycling processes. Crying purges an overloaded system so it can safely reset back to a more comfortable homeostasis.

Purpose? Perhaps… Being comfortable interacting with larger fractals, and scopes, of degrees of freedom. In that case growth, discovery, and challenge are forever since infinity is really, really big.

As far as I can tell, evolution keeps homesteading voids then filling them with cool stuff. Can we ever run out of void? So the overall pattern keeps growing, and there is always more uniqueness to discover.

Related
Standard AI still struggles with how to value things… (updated Dec 2015)

How failure moves from resulting in death to engendering support thus negating welfare

This recently popped into mind:

When using Castpoints, failure engenders support and success attracts investment.

Many people have been trained to distrust “markets”, even though we swim in a sea of markets. It’s true that evolution (a market) can be pretty harsh with many avenues leading straight to death. So “capitalism must be mean” right? I always knew there was more to the story from Castpoints point of view, and now I got it!

Evolution is awesome at 2 things: creating niches, and  arbitraging opportunities. Niches just snuggle into voids (root: make ineffective, get ride of, left empty).

Screen Shot 2015-12-20 at 9.19.56 AM.png
Image credits: heart, tree, brown, lounge.

Arbitrage means promoting what’s undervalued to be more effectively valued, or finding what overvalued and shorting it down to a seemingly more effective value.

Never mind the people who have made “enough” money and are looking to add meaning to their lives by helping other’s, Castpoints is a system where the most undervalued are awesome because the bigger the arbitrage spread, the bigger the potential profit, with minimal risk of trouble or exploitation. Don’t reform welfare, kiss it goodbye.

Is there any science backing this up?

Antifragility is beyond resilience or robustness. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better. This property is behind everything that has changed with time: evolution, culture, ideas… The antifragile loves randomness and uncertainty, which also means—crucially—a love of errors, a certain class of errors. Antifragility has a singular property of allowing us to deal with the unknown, to do things without understanding them—and do them well.

Just like Alex Wissner-Gross’s A new equation for intelligence, real (Artificial) Intelligence does not need a goal.

But wait, how do we tell what’s undervalued? Easy. This is a mocked up partial search result from Castpoints:

Screen Shot 2016-01-09 at 6.53.07 PM.png

“Arb opps” means arbitrage opportunity. This is not some fancy black box math. It’s just the spread between the current, and historical average supply and average supply for the given context, based on the value a user has already added in that context. Not just for people, for anything. It does not really matter if there is a huge demand for written content about birds, if a person does not write well, there is minimal opportunity for them.

Right now we often think insulating ourselves from our actions and blaming others is a workable strategy. In CP, failures are kept small partly because we get real time ROI feedback on how things are going. It’s transparent so there is no one to blame. Also, if open to other options, it’s a profit opportunity to others to help you out. And CP can auto suggest roles and task specific for you.

In other words, people can’t fail on a big level unless they willfully try!

The “success attracts investment” part is obvious. Almost every option has an ROI associated with it and an insurance percentage. It’s simple to rank options according to the ROI (which is based on transactions) with a minimum risk. Once a thing has a proven record, and a low insurance percentage (premium) they have near zero incentive to mess up. Or else their insurance immediately goes up (until their track record gets better) which makes them less competitive.

Related:
+ A Dozen Things I’ve Learned from Nassim Taleb about Optionality/Investing

Dynamic pricing: The death of big data for marketing and decisions

This is not about analyzing things to find out what’s going on. It’s about the relative ineffectiveness of applying analytics for the purpose

What’s more effective? Analyzing petabytes of (often stolen) data ($$$) (often incorrectly), or mimicking in real time what is being proven to work in real time?

“Big data can be analyzed for insights that lead to better decisions and strategic business moves.” Castpoints allows others to just copy what works. If Lisa’s leadership role of marketing for lawn mowers, and all the associated tasks, has a 90% ROI rank, she can make it available for a price. Now Anne, who’s current role is only doing 30% ROI can buy Lisa’s expertise. Both profit. And they can see tomorrow’s probable decisions because there are other high ROI roles further along on the same pattern. Simple pattern matching with first semester statistics.

A mock supply and demand chart from Castpoints is below. This would all be real time free info. An amazing amount of info is generated from things people already know. A start / stop time; min or max price. We don’t have to analyze anything and guess about what people are doing or intending, or what would be of value to them. They already made it public, yet their privacy is protected.

Transportation > SF > SUV (context)
23 @ Mission and 1st st. to Seaclif 
(item)
15 USD avg (for he next few hours)

Screen Shot 2015-12-23 at 12.32.14 PM.png
(This is a design I am playing with for cell phones. The big screen version will be nicer.)

  • The left scale
    • The black 36 is the average price of supply.
    • The red 34 is the most recent transaction.
    • The thin red line is the historical average.
    • The black 23 is the average price of demand.
  • The red circles are transactions. This is where supply and demand overlap looking forward.
  • The purple line is my order for a ride from Mission and 1st street to Seaclif to buy groceries sometime today. It says:
    • I am willing to be picked up in an hour, but no later than 12 hours from now.
    • I’m willing to pay near zero, up to $34. I want to make sure I am willing to pay more than average because I don’t have any food in the house. But my schedule is flexible enough that I might get the ride a bit cheaper.
    • Right now it looks like supply will overlap my demand about 6 hours from now denoted by the short red line going though the long purple order line.
  • The purple boxes are for changing the order quickly. There are a couple of arrows (not shown) just click on those and the 4 order parameters change, say 3%, as denoted buy the box edges.
  • The green circles are current opportunities. Either supply and demand are relatively very far apart, or relatively imbalanced.
  • If you are a potential driver, you could get an alert about times when you can earn about 20% more RIO than history would suggest.

I can always link orders together to get a ride to the market,  then a bookstore, then lunch, then back home. Or, I can put in an order in the category:

Transportation > SF > SUV (context)
8 @ Mission and 1st st. to Seaclif store for an hour then return 
(item)
35 USD avg (for he next few hours)

Of course there are filters for the driver’s reputation rank and performance bond level.

This chart template can be for any item in the world. In other words, anyone can find the supply and demand of anything easily, and be notified about arbitrage opportunities.
Screen Shot 2015-12-23 at 12.32.14 PM.png
Knowing the supply, demand, price, and ROI’s of any item or option makes decisions much simpler, and defendable.

Related: How a free market provides charity: Emergent dynamic pricing is simple and accurate

Update Dec 2015
Founders Dating: Best pricing optimization software?

There are a bunch of fantastic services in the space – we’ve worked with www.wiser.comand www.360pi.com… however, these services are often really expensive (thousands per month). A quick and dirty way … is to pull down pricing from Amazon API – and stay within a % of the lowest price…

Instead of spending resources basing prices relative to others, consider using prices that automatically adjust to all variables.

Update Dec 2015
GrubHub Charges Restaurants an Average 13.5% Commission Per Order

Restaurants can choose their level of commission rate, at or above the Company’s base rates, to affect their relative priority in its sorting algorithms, with restaurants paying higher commission rates generally appearing higher in the search order than restaurants paying lower commission rates. Commissions are generally based on a fixed percentage of the value of the order.

Could this be why fake restaurants have started popping up on Seamless in New York City? Just last week, it was discovered that some restaurants have joined the website under a fake second (or third, or fourth) name, but when investigated the Seamless accounts all direct orders to the same restaurant.

Because the pricing is indirect, people try to game it. Then it takes resources to manage that. Which is why their apparent fee to match supply and demand is at 13% when it could be at < 1%.

Addendum
Many task and services should have 2 prices curves. One for people who have more time then money, and another for people who have more money than time.

Update January 2016
Google Flu Trends is no longer good at predicting flu, scientists find Google has a lot of resources, yet made basic mistakes like not accounting for auto suggestions. Again, it’s doing things indirectly. What’s the pedigree of the CDC data? How often do they change their definition of “flu”? How does Google deal with it’s daily search algorithm changes which probably effects auto suggest? The supposed 45 search terms and weightings — how are those selected and determined?

With CP, the real and actual raw data would be available to everyone in real time. (CDC data seems to be weekly.) This massively reduces many uncertainties. Then entities would compete to generate the best prediction and monetize that.

Google Flu Trends and Google Dengue Trends are no longer publishing current estimates of Flu and Dengue fever based on search patterns.

Søren Winther Lundby at Founder Dating gets it! TAXONOMIES!

Q: Will all universities go online?

A: Seems to me, soon, universities will just go away because the rate of change is increasing which forces more effectiveness with translates to being more direct: peer 2 peer. What’s the structure of this? As Søren noted in Will MOOCs kill advanced degrees and credentials? YES!! It’s TAXONOMIES!!! The reason fractals are effective is because they have structured relationships. It’s what creates context which creates meaning, which creates value.

When real communication systems are correctly set up, including conflict resolution, it will be so powerful it can solve open ended problems. (Genetic algorithms already solve closed problems like the “ideal propeller design for a tugboat in cold saline water.”) Increasing competition engenders better asset allocation, which requires better communication systems, in order to create value in an expanding number of classifications. What is miss valued in a category won’t be for long due to arbitration, which will happen well before a person can take a semester class on it.

In other words, when we all are correctly connected, just “working” on our specific near term problem will actually solve problems we did not even know we were solving because some things will fit in a better classification that we likely knew nothing about because there are too many to know!

Even though we were ignorant, things can still work out. This serendipity is due to emergence, which seems to be due to a “enough” connections.

Story: A very successful manufacturing company (no debt, near zero employee turnover) president decided to hire 3-4 MIT grads since they are the “smartest people in the room”, and they passed professional all day psychological evaluations ($$$$). His wife, who is a self taught graphologist (study of handwriting), looked at their handwriting for a few minutes and said, “only hire them if they have solitary jobs because they lack people skills.”

Short story: total failure, for the exact reasons the non credentialed wife indicated at almost zero cost.

I have a 14 year old kid (and a masters.). I mostly care that the school does not squish her spirit, and that she refines her innate people skills. Some critical thinking skills would be a bonus, but I’m not sure that’s compatible with a teen’s need to be part of a group!

Math, etc., is trivial to acquire. And most math, etc., is taught backwards anyway. Kids should learn about rates of change way before linear ideas!

Everything is going peer 2 peer. So as an employer, I don’t care what your degree is. I simply want to hire you to get along with people and get the job done with minimal risk. If you have a good reputation and already done XYZ, and I’m asking for XYZ +/1 15%, I can hire you with little risk.

15-25 year olds, their energy, and creativity are hugely miss-valued and underutilized partly because there is no system in place to make win-win transactions with them a commodity. NOT them a commodity, the transaction. Imagine that same system available to the billions of people who, as a commodity, are only “worth” a pittance per day? A safe system where you don’t have to get “educated” to be able to add value, you can get educated AS you add value. Instead of one system fits all, you go at your own pace in your own direction. Since your ability to add value is decoupled from other’s permission, no one can “hold you back”, “disenfranchise” you, etc.

Porter Stansberry, James Altucher, and many others, say don’t send your kid to college. Give them the $20,000 to start a business. They will likely fail, but learn a lot, and can try again with the 2nd year of tuition.

I LOVE this story! How 4 Mexican ESL immigrant high school kids and their $800 robot beat MIT’s $11,000 robot MIT had six ocean-engineering students, four mechanical engineers, and two computer science majors. The immigrants, who lived in sheds, placed 3rd in the robot underwater tasks, and won the: judge’s special achievement award, design award, technical writing award, and overall winner.