How failure moves from resulting in death to engendering support thus negating welfare

This recently popped into mind:

When using Castpoints, failure engenders support and success attracts investment.

Many people have been trained to distrust “markets”, even though we swim in a sea of markets. It’s true that evolution (a market) can be pretty harsh with many avenues leading straight to death. So “capitalism must be mean” right? I always knew there was more to the story from Castpoints point of view, and now I got it!

Evolution is awesome at 2 things: creating niches, and  arbitraging opportunities. Niches just snuggle into voids (root: make ineffective, get ride of, left empty).

Screen Shot 2015-12-20 at 9.19.56 AM.png
Image credits: heart, tree, brown, lounge.

Arbitrage means promoting what’s undervalued to be more effectively valued, or finding what overvalued and shorting it down to a seemingly more effective value.

Never mind the people who have made “enough” money and are looking to add meaning to their lives by helping other’s, Castpoints is a system where the most undervalued are awesome because the bigger the arbitrage spread, the bigger the potential profit, with minimal risk of trouble or exploitation. Don’t reform welfare, kiss it goodbye.

Is there any science backing this up?

Antifragility is beyond resilience or robustness. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better. This property is behind everything that has changed with time: evolution, culture, ideas… The antifragile loves randomness and uncertainty, which also means—crucially—a love of errors, a certain class of errors. Antifragility has a singular property of allowing us to deal with the unknown, to do things without understanding them—and do them well.

Just like Alex Wissner-Gross’s A new equation for intelligence, real (Artificial) Intelligence does not need a goal.

But wait, how do we tell what’s undervalued? Easy. This is a mocked up partial search result from Castpoints:

Screen Shot 2016-01-09 at 6.53.07 PM.png

“Arb opps” means arbitrage opportunity. This is not some fancy black box math. It’s just the spread between the current, and historical average supply and average supply for the given context, based on the value a user has already added in that context. Not just for people, for anything. It does not really matter if there is a huge demand for written content about birds, if a person does not write well, there is minimal opportunity for them.

Right now we often think insulating ourselves from our actions and blaming others is a workable strategy. In CP, failures are kept small partly because we get real time ROI feedback on how things are going. It’s transparent so there is no one to blame. Also, if open to other options, it’s a profit opportunity to others to help you out. And CP can auto suggest roles and task specific for you.

In other words, people can’t fail on a big level unless they willfully try!

The “success attracts investment” part is obvious. Almost every option has an ROI associated with it and an insurance percentage. It’s simple to rank options according to the ROI (which is based on transactions) with a minimum risk. Once a thing has a proven record, and a low insurance percentage (premium) they have near zero incentive to mess up. Or else their insurance immediately goes up (until their track record gets better) which makes them less competitive.

Related:
+ A Dozen Things I’ve Learned from Nassim Taleb about Optionality/Investing

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s